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Jelanstream

Did you managed to complete the challenge every week?

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Hello Again Primedice Forum Community
I just want to know guys that did you manage the challenge every week even it's very hard or you are a busy. For me I didn't manage 
to complete it every week cause sometime's I didn't participate challenge if it is very hard and it will can make me bust cause I only had 
a small amount everytime. But I've try it in a few rolls. Also this week challenge is hard to and I think I can't complete it.
How about you guys did you managed to complete the challenge weekly?

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It's depends on the challenge as you said because sometimes challenges are so tough that it's better not to participate.

So if I have time and challenge is not much tough than I usually do it.

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2 hours ago, Jelanstream said:

Hello Again Primedice Forum Community
I just want to know guys that did you manage the challenge every week even it's very hard or you are a busy. For me I didn't manage 
to complete it every week cause sometime's I didn't participate challenge if it is very hard and it will can make me bust cause I only had 
a small amount everytime. But I've try it in a few rolls. Also this week challenge is hard to and I think I can't complete it.
How about you guys did you managed to complete the challenge weekly?

I don't have the balls to finish the week's challenge. My participation to the challenge depends on how easy or difficult the challenge is. There are challenges that are easy so I go and join. Sometimes I dont have the time to finish it.

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I have tried my best to try this weekly challenge but unfortunately, i wasn't be able to finish it. I'll admit that there are weekly challenges like this week that is really hard to achieved. I admire those players who manage to do and finish primedice's weekly forum challenge.

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Since I'm new here I participated last challenge by mirela and finished it..I also want to participant by Darko challenge but the first task is harder and I known that it will bust my coins..but I tried still and only 3win in a row.so I give up and will wait for the next weekly challenge.

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I enjoy joining forum challenge. I only choose the challenge that I think I can complete. If the challenge is so hard I don't join as it might sacrifice my balance more than the reward when I don't manage a good strategy.

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7 hours ago, Jelanstream said:

Hello Again Primedice Forum Community
I just want to know guys that did you manage the challenge every week even it's very hard or you are a busy. For me I didn't manage 
to complete it every week cause sometime's I didn't participate challenge if it is very hard and it will can make me bust cause I only had 
a small amount everytime. But I've try it in a few rolls. Also this week challenge is hard to and I think I can't complete it.
How about you guys did you managed to complete the challenge weekly?

This last challenge is something that is for me one of the hardest. 

I did get 4 win in a row in 8x multiplier, a couple of 3x but 5x in a row was nowhere to be found.

 

Anyhow, paid my tribute to the Legend Kobe. May his soul rest in peace.

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I did not manage to complete the challenge every week because it was very difficult and also took quite a long time to play and successfully complete the challenge. so I will play to solve challenges if I have a long free time, I myself am rather busy in the next few months so I rarely play and discuss with you.
I myself hope you all benefit.

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I always try to do the math beforehand to decide whether to try out a challenge. For a rough idea of how much a given challenge will cost people on average, just calculate:

[Expected Roll Count] x [Bet Amount] x 0.01

This gives you the average losses due to the house edge. Then, subtract that from the approximate prize share people will get, and it gives you an idea of how profitable a challenge will be under optimal theoretical conditions.

Of course, variance throws a wrench into this and adds more risk to the whole affair - so I tend to avoid challenges that focus on relatively high multipliers/rare events. Like this week's challenge...

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Definitely not. I don't try hard. I try all weekly challenges, but I stop if when it seems too difficult for me.

Also, I set a certain loss limit for each challenge, and I stop after this limit.

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i always get busted huge amounts before the weekly challenges start ! i manage to start a new week with a big balance to be able to complete both challenges VIP and the normal ones , but after getting busted i quit, and wait for another week !!

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I try to participate in all competitions. But if in the competition you need to knock out, for example, the largest X or the largest number of greens on some X, then I usually refrain from participating.

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I can't actually remember when I last time missed one. For the time I'm in this forum, I might have missed only one or two.

I really like them and, moreover, would greatly appreciate if there were daily challenges but I know it's hard to manage them. Well, at least two times a week, as there's not much to do in midweek.

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On 08/02/2020 at 14:15, Serlite said:

I always try to do the math beforehand to decide whether to try out a challenge. For a rough idea of how much a given challenge will cost people on average, just calculate:

[Expected Roll Count] x [Bet Amount] x 0.01

This gives you the average losses due to the house edge. Then, subtract that from the approximate prize share people will get, and it gives you an idea of how profitable a challenge will be under optimal theoretical conditions.

Of course, variance throws a wrench into this and adds more risk to the whole affair - so I tend to avoid challenges that focus on relatively high multipliers/rare events. Like this week's challenge...

Thanks for constantly helping players with a script whenever you do.

How would you get the expected roll count, do you just compute the probability or is there like an observed data that you rely on whenever challenges are at less than 10x multiplier?

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12 hours ago, jamyr said:

Thanks for constantly helping players with a script whenever you do.

How would you get the expected roll count, do you just compute the probability or is there like an observed data that you rely on whenever challenges are at less than 10x multiplier?

That's a good question! There's some pretty easy math involved that you can try yourself.

Let's use this week's challenge as an example!

  1. Win 77.9528x, twice in a row
  2. Hit 20.16 as a roll number

What are the basic probabilities for these? Well, 77.9528x has a 1.27% (0.0127 probability) win chance, and rolling any given number is 1/10000. So we get:

  1. (0.0127)^2 = 0.00016129, so inverting it (1/0.00016129), we get 6200 rolls
  2. (1/10000) = 0.0001, so inverting it (1/0.0001) we get 10000 rolls

So the expected roll count is 6200 + 10000 = 16200 rolls.

That gives you an estimate of the average number of rolls people will take to complete the challenge...but the cost can become unpredictable when higher multipliers come into play. In those cases, variance can incur a much greater cost on you than the house edge - so be careful with which challenges you try! I generally stick to challenges that leave a significant profit margin between the cost and the expected prize.

It really does pay to do the math in advance; last week's challenge had an expected cost of about 40k and carried high risk of variance, making it so difficult that only 29 players finished it. That means they split the base prize of 0.01 - that's only 34k a person, which means on average, they actually lost money. And that's not even counting the people that failed to complete the challenge after sinking a lot of money into it!

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I've never played any challenges at all here at PD, I would like to try sometime soon, but sometimes when I look at the challenges, they look too hard to play. So I play the easy ones that might come up. I used to play at Stake but obviously not anymore either.

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As Serlite said above it’s all about if the prize is equal to or larger than the wagering it takes to get there. If you are losing more than you would get if you successfully do the challenge, then it is absolutely asinine to even try it. I don’t know how the easy the challenges are on primedice compared to the Stake races but the races are completely not worth it because of how loaded the top is with high level gamblers that are wagering $125,000+ for a $1,500. Statistically there is only one person in that scenario that is expected to come out on the plus side, after you take a very conservative 1% house edge away from the wagering total. Honestly, without even knowing the challenge on PD, I’d have to assume it can’t be any worse than a very loss heavy stake “race” that leaves most people wondering why the heck they even participated in the first place. 

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On 13/02/2020 at 11:59, Serlite said:

That's a good question! There's some pretty easy math involved that you can try yourself.

An easy math, I thought no such thing exists. When I look at numbers and stuff, I get dizzy and I admit I'm very bad at math.

On 13/02/2020 at 11:59, Serlite said:

What are the basic probabilities for these? Well, 77.9528x has a 1.27% (0.0127 probability) win chance, and rolling any given number is 1/10000. So we get:

  1. (0.0127)^2 = 0.00016129, so inverting it (1/0.00016129), we get 6200 rolls
  2. (1/10000) = 0.0001, so inverting it (1/0.0001) we get 10000 rolls

So the expected roll count is 6200 + 10000 = 16200 rolls.

It really does pay to do the math in advance; last week's challenge had an expected cost of about 40k and carried high risk of variance, making it so difficult that only 29 players finished it. That means they split the base prize of 0.01 - that's only 34k a person, which means on average, they actually lost money. And that's not even counting the people that failed to complete the challenge after sinking a lot of money into it!

I saw you are able to complete this quest, may you please give me your observed number of rolls, then I may get another challenge finisher to give me his observed number of rolls, and if lucky enough may get a third set of Observed might be able to have an idea of the variance and if it is not too much, then maybe I'm gonna try my best to finish this weeks quest.

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On 07/02/2020 at 11:14, Jelanstream said:

How about you guys did you managed to complete the challenge weekly?

Challenges here differ in difficulties every week. There were easy that I manage to join and post my entry. I tried to participate most of the time but I am always tempted to play and just aim to win and not to complete the challenge. 

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talking about the weekly challenges, I also sometimes feel a little difficulty in solving them. but it is not because these challenges are impossible to solve, but it all depends on our tenacity and enthusiasm in solving these challenges. every week the challenges always change and of course the level of difficulty is also different. if we are always consistent and persistent in doing it, I think it can all be overcome.
in addition to tenacity and enthusiasm, capital is also the main calculation in solving these challenges. all challenges can be resolved if we always think positive and believe we can solve them

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10 hours ago, jamyr said:

An easy math, I thought no such thing exists. When I look at numbers and stuff, I get dizzy and I admit I'm very bad at math.

I saw you are able to complete this quest, may you please give me your observed number of rolls, then I may get another challenge finisher to give me his observed number of rolls, and if lucky enough may get a third set of Observed might be able to have an idea of the variance and if it is not too much, then maybe I'm gonna try my best to finish this weeks quest.

Hmm...I checked my dicebot logs, and it looked like in this case, I was very lucky in terms of the number of rolls I made.

  • Part 1: 2538
  • Part 2: 3023

Together, that was only 5561 rolls...but even though I came out ahead in terms of roll count, I still suffered badly in terms of my losses. The expected losses from house edge were 16.2k sats. But my losses for this challenge were:

  • Part 1: 779 DOGE = 23.4k sats
  • Part 2: 0.671 XRP = 2.2k sats

Converted and added, that makes a total loss of approximately 25.6k...which is obviously a lot bigger than 16.2k! The massive losses came primarily from Part 1, where such high multipliers carried with them much higher variance, and led to a greater deviation from the expected value. If the challenge took millions of rolls instead of thousands, I'd probably get much closer to the expected value - but of course, a challenge like that wouldn't really be reasonable for anyone to attempt!

So there's the catch - the expected value alone can't tell the whole story, and shouldn't be relied upon unless you're hunting at the lowest possible multiplier (where variance is much lower). I still attempted it since I expect the prize share will be at least 50k, and 50k - 16.2k = 33.8k, which is a lot of leeway to still earn a profit...but if it was much tighter, I don't think I would have tried it at all.

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This week challenge made  my .002 ltc to .065 ltc by just hunting 78x twice in a row. But after few minutes I became bored and try to roll it in random strat. sadly end up busted. Pretty hard to hit that 78x in a row when you are hunting it, but I know it's easy when you just play without aiming to hit that.

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and I also rarely solve weekly challenges because for some things when I have to hit with a big payout while my capital is small, it will be very very much to get that number, but if only looking for numbers, maybe I will do it because I rarely spend a lot of balance

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On 15/02/2020 at 09:27, Serlite said:

Hmm...I checked my dicebot logs, and it looked like in this case, I was very lucky in terms of the number of rolls I made.

  • Part 1: 2538
  • Part 2: 3023

Together, that was only 5561 rolls...but even though I came out ahead in terms of roll count, I still suffered badly in terms of my losses. The expected losses from house edge were 16.2k sats. But my losses for this challenge were:

  • Part 1: 779 DOGE = 23.4k sats
  • Part 2: 0.671 XRP = 2.2k sats

That was a lot of bets for the part 2, anyhow. I don't think I can do this weeks challenge but pretty sure I will try my best on next weeks challenge. I hope your still up with discussing it with me/us whoever is in to the discussion. Thanks a lot Serlite!

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