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policewale

Calculating Chance

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Hello players :)

Working out with probability can be simple or extremely complicated. 

How did you come up with your strategy? Did you calculate its probability? If so how did you do it?

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i always like to play randomly ! its a game of numbers, a game of randomness, i keep on playing in a random way until i reach my goal or i get busted ! thats how i always gamble, and not only in dice ! but in all the other games.

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19 minutes ago, Chikou1306 said:

i always like to play randomly ! its a game of numbers, a game of randomness, i keep on playing in a random way until i reach my goal or i get busted ! thats how i always gamble, and not only in dice ! but in all the other games.

Sometimes I feel like playing random too. It works for sometime but now it isn't. 

25 minutes ago, Muffin20 said:

maybe a lot of effort 😂

Mind explaining that different way? I often see you hunting results and honestly Im kinda jealous.

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4 hours ago, policewale said:

Hello players :)

Working out with probability can be simple or extremely complicated. 

How did you come up with your strategy? Did you calculate its probability? If so how did you do it?

i simulate 1M bets with my strat

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Although there are methods to simulate probability on the site, the actual results can vary quite a bit depending on your seed. I think its better to watch the rolls coming out on your seed and trying to follow the subtle patterns for it. Even then, the results can be completely different, but I think its the best way.

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20 hours ago, policewale said:

Sometimes I feel like playing random too. It works for sometime but now it isn't. 

thats how gambling is though , you can never win every time you want to, the point of playing random is to depend on your luck and to stop once you hit a good profit.. and you will surely get your chance to win big... it may take time but you will :) 

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I myself before playing will usually ask a few friends who have played so that I can anticipate losing and with my own experience so I will use a fairly large balance and also with a bet that will definitely hit before it runs out.

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11 hours ago, DreamStage said:

My bot does that for me as i made some formulas for calculating the probabilistic chances.

Used ChatBot for gathering information on specific red streaks and made my strategies for more red streaks but also winning more profit. (!odds)

Also using https://dicesites.com/tools

u can do that on dicebot... theres a bad streak table that tolds u ur porfit and how long u can go with ur strat

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Nah I don't. I'm playing since so long. And I'm using my old strategy most of the time. So I have learn the game so well. And have good knowledge about the chance and probability on this payout. As we can't bet the house edge unexpected reds lead to bust. 

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On 1/16/2020 at 9:14 PM, katsuragi said:

u can do that on dicebot... theres a bad streak table that tolds u ur porfit and how long u can go with ur strat

absolutely right, because I once had a good strategy to run on a bot, but it only lasted for an hour because if it passes, it would definitely suffer a losing streak that made me suffer a lot of losses so even though using a bot there is no guarantee of always winning.

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I calculate the chance base on my bankroll for example I'm hunting 1000x and I have a 0.01 bitcoin I calculate it base on
how many rolls to hit that 1000x sometimes I multiple the payout into 4 so 1000x4=4000 then I divide 0.01 bitcoin into 4000.
0.01/5000= 0.0000025 so my basebet is only that for play safe. Or I just use pre roll.

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On 16/01/2020 at 09:57, sourc3code said:

I think its better to watch the rolls coming out on your seed and trying to follow the subtle patterns for it.

I completely agree. Sometimes the result is based on a pattern. 

 

@Jelanstream Its too difficult for e to calculate. It's not that I'm bad in math. I just don't do it, I am too lazy to do it.

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20 hours ago, Jelanstream said:

I calculate the chance base on my bankroll for example I'm hunting 1000x and I have a 0.01 bitcoin I calculate it base on
how many rolls to hit that 1000x sometimes I multiple the payout into 4 so 1000x4=4000 then I divide 0.01 bitcoin into 4000.
0.01/5000= 0.0000025 so my basebet is only that for play safe. Or I just use pre roll.

Very good calculation, I myself counted the game that I did with the aim that I could hold a long red in the game and also this could be used to minimize the losses that I would experience so I did this before playing. balance is also important if we are less likely to experience a hefty loss

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I would usually just go with the gut feeling whenever I am gambling and these feelings are usually 51% correct. Although sometimes seeing the recent bets could give you possible ideas in what digit is going to be rolled. 

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Not calculating though. Just my instinct and luck. Not even bother to calculate how many profits or how much will I lose. i just go with the flow of my own strat.

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I don't know how to calculate probabilities, I just play with strategies that I often play with. so it can be said that I play by relying on luck, and if I'm lucky, then I get profit

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Interesting topic here. Learning new ideas and strats from different players. Definitely worth a try. As for me I haven't tried calculating it. What I do is when I have a higher payout I have a low on loss and when I lower my payout I increases my on loss. Although I got busted  but its not that easy to be busted if you got a good balance.

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I tend to trust my intuition a lot and in most cases it really worked for me. However, when my confidence increases too much, I end up losing everything I have.

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Sometimes I calculate what I can get from specific payout I want to used but when reds come continuously calculation is out of my hand already

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On 19/01/2020 at 14:28, Jelanstream said:

I calculate the chance base on my bankroll for example I'm hunting 1000x and I have a 0.01 bitcoin I calculate it base on
how many rolls to hit that 1000x sometimes I multiple the payout into 4 so 1000x4=4000 then I divide 0.01 bitcoin into 4000.
0.01/5000= 0.0000025 so my basebet is only that for play safe. Or I just use pre roll.

When im on roll hunt of 99x 990x or 9900x i do 80 rolls or 800 or 8000 rolls of a base bet of 1 sat just to do prerolls and to stop when i hit something (its more to be able to stop on the side than the hit but still is some sats extras) then for the base bet i just throw half of balance... i will try your strat because when i play safe it just takes to long to do some balance and when i dont play safe i just go to high on the red streak and bust it so... i dont usually hunt unless i dont have the min balance for my auto strat

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calculating probabilities will be very difficult, it's best not to think about it. just walk like flowing water, luck will come if we keep trying even in gambling

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