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Angela

Martingale, Deferred

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DISCLAIMER: I do NOT, in any way, suggest this strategy as a foolproof approach to consider it as a "money printing" strategy. There is no way to defeat the odds of any casino game using a system unless you have infinite balance, which we of course don't have at all. Use at your own risk.

Today, let me share with you what I actually use in order to survive for a very long time (1 week, but with a very meek base bet of 1 satoshi) without busting and still gain a profit. My record of non-stop auto finally reached its end after extreme (and I believe, very rare) losing streak conditions forced it to my "Lower Limit" condition on DiceBot. (Yes, use DiceBot for efficiency, and yes, despite the hard stop I was still able to come out with a profit.)

I call this "Martingale, Deferred".

First off, the major drawback on using the classic Martingale as one of the strategies that players usually deploy is that the small, constant wins (linear increase) will not eventually make up for the eventual occurrence of a very long losing streak plus your bankroll because as you lose in streaks, the system's demand to recover from it exponentially increases (parabolic increase). Unless you play very conservatively and you have a very big balance, playing with small payouts isn't relatively safe at all.

Martingale strategies' risk of ruin (regardless of the variance on any multiplier) can be obtained using this formula:

BaseBet + (Σ BaseBet((1 + OLIB)^n))

Where,

BaseBet = the bet where you want the strategy start or reset after a win;

OLIB = the value that you put on the "On Loss, Increase By" field; and,

n = losing streak you want to withstand over time.

In that formula we see how changing the OLIB greatly affects the increment per bet for every streak of loss than changing the BaseBet but technically, it must not be changed if the principle of Martingale is to be adhered. If that can be changed, then why don't we add an element to the formula which makes the parabolic increase less steep? It is where the "On Win, Increase By" principle like D'Alembert or Fibonacci System comes handy. Not so slow like the latter but also not so fast like the former. Let me explain it better using an actual scenario.

I pick a multiplier, let's say 2x (for practicality). Normally, this sets OLIB = 1 because you increase the bet 100% higher than before but that makes the increment:

(1 + OLIB)^n = {1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 ... n}

which becomes very destructive once n reaches high numbers which is not uncommon as we see fit how the dice rolls but that's not how we are going to follow it.

What if I make the OLIB lower? Let's say, OLIB = 0.5? Then the increment becomes:

(1 + OLIB)^n = {1, 1.5, 2.25, 3.375, 7.594, 17.086... n}

which makes our Martingale relatively safer (compared to the original).

You might ask, why use that if your gain after an end of a losing streak doesn't make sense because it does not recover your losses entirely? That's true, but the eventual recovery will be mediated by "On Win, Increase By" percentage on a negative value (which we will call OWIB). This makes our negative progression system more conservative (reminiscent of Oscar's Grind) thus, allowing you to play longer (which should be the essence that you must be having on your mind when playing at a casino). Let's simulate an actual scenario with an arguably bad roll for our 2x payout:

L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W W W W L

There, we see 17 losing streaks. If we use the classic Martingale, the system could have already demanded 131,072 times the BaseBet which may already have busted most of the gamblers.

But, if we use OLIB = 0.25 then by the end of the series this deferred system will only demand about 45 times the BaseBet. To recover, we set OWIB in a ratio that negates low increase with a streak of greens (that is, if we use 2x payout then if OLIB = 0.25, OWIB = 0.25). Using the principle, it would work on any other payout such that whatever reduction you do to OLIB, you should also put the reduction ratio to OWIB. Of course, you could set a higher value of OLIB than the expected reduction ratio that you will put to OWIB but make sure it is low enough so that you can recover faster.

——————————

Drawbacks:

1. Like Oscar's Grind strategy (our approach is just slightly faster), on a certain losing streak, the sum of all wins on the succeeding round must break-even against the sum of the long losing streak plus all possible loses after the streak in order to recover. If wins finally sum up greater than the losses then it will yield profit. (Recovery and winning would be faster if OLIB > OWIB but also makes the increment faster to accumulate, so consider before engaging.)

2. Multiple losing streaks can be as high as 17 in reality, or even more than that, unlike the one at the scenario. Everyone knows that.

3. Making OLIB too low might jeopardize your bankroll by not being able to recover as quickly as you expect it to. In contrast, making a low adjustment ratio will not help much as well. Remember that the higher the OLIB, the steeper the parabolic increase still becomes.

Advantages:

1. The strategy keeps the losses at a minimum while the profit gains remain the same (only delayed if there would be a very long losing streak).

2. Allows a greater eventual gain as the system tries to break-even by making OLIB > OWIB

——————————

Your thoughts guys? Give it a try then let me know what results it yielded you. If you have questions, I am ready.

Edited by Angela
Added a footer and minor typos.

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It is very hard to understand for a normal person who doesn't know anything about script,

But it will be awesome if u put this into some script and let us learn from that. It would be very much appreciable.

Hope u understand what i want to explain, kindly make a small working script to test your way of betting.

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For those who cannot get it (I know, too technical for readers to understand) I will post screenshots of 50,000 non-stop rolls including the session details on this strategy later for you to see the results and to understand it better. :)

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i understood kind of what you meant, but didnt really understand it. Well   did you try it?  (i think nothing is good for long run btw,just not worth it)

maybe if to have  balance to survive for long, just take parts of them and leave rolling. (like if have 0.01 like 50k a time and leave it on auto, and will have it run for some time xD

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4 hours ago, Cat4Life said:

i understood kind of what you meant, but didnt really understand it. Well   did you try it?  (i think nothing is good for long run btw,just not worth it)

maybe if to have  balance to survive for long, just take parts of them and leave rolling. (like if have 0.01 like 50k a time and leave it on auto, and will have it run for some time xD

Yes I did, and it actually worked but the profit yield considerably suffered maybe because of my meek bet or the long time for the system to recover after a very long string of reds. As all things go hand-in-hand, if you want a big profit, prepare to risk more. Otherwise, go for relative safety but you may end up getting something that is not worth it- depending on someone's taste.

EDIT: The image shows how the run has worked for more than an hour (as a small sample) with labels. Of course, the 8-streak loss and/or the deferred losses may always appear over the other blue conditions, but it will not drop as hard as the original Martingale. I will post more once those conditions appear.

DISCLAIMER 2: The worst condition that you can actually encounter (which is NOT impossible) is when all 3 blue conditions appear all at a same instance. I can only recommend this strategy for a short run if you will make the base bet higher than 100 satoshi or else you will be overrun.

EDIT 2: The second image shows how the strategy will actually swing your balance low when all 3 blue conditions (it could get even longer and worse) on first image stacks on one another. The sample balance went as low as 400x the initial value of the bet, so the strategy is relatively not safe when you have low balance.

Untitled.png

Untitled.png

Edited by Angela
Uploaded a sample roll using the strategy.

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3 hours ago, Angela said:

For those who cannot get it (I know, too technical for readers to understand) I will post screenshots of 50,000 non-stop rolls including the session details on this strategy later for you to see the results and to understand it better. :)

I imagine that would be very useful for a lot of players.  I believe that would be more helpful than trying to explain it in text, looking forward to seeing the results.

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8 hours ago, Angela said:

Yes I did, and it actually worked but the profit yield considerably suffered maybe because of my meek bet or the long time for the system to recover after a very long string of reds. As all things go hand-in-hand, if you want a big profit, prepare to risk more. Otherwise, go for relative safety but you may end up getting something that is not worth it- depending on someone's taste.

EDIT: The image shows how the run has worked for more than an hour (as a small sample) with labels. Of course, the 8-streak loss and/or the deferred losses may always appear over the other blue conditions, but it will not drop as hard as the original Martingale. I will post more once those conditions appear.

DISCLAIMER 2: The worst condition that you can actually encounter (which is NOT impossible) is when all 3 blue conditions appear all at a same instance. I can only recommend this strategy for a short run if you will make the base bet higher than 100 satoshi or else you will be overrun.

EDIT 2: The second image shows how the strategy will actually swing your balance low when all 3 blue conditions (it could get even longer and worse) on first image stacks on one another. The sample balance went as low as 400x the initial value of the bet, so the strategy is relatively not safe when you have low balance.

Untitled.png

Untitled.png

can u paste the script here so we can also test it and give reviews.

 

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As promised, here's one of the results I yielded after 4 days. Here's the spotlight of this strategy (see image). As you can see, the worst streak I got was 11 at 1.5x multiplier while my balance was just over 0.002 ETH. If you are using a regular Martingale strategy, on the 8th streak on that multiplier in my balance, you may have already busted, but through the method above I was able to withstand it.

PS: I will post the marathon of 50,000 rolls I did with this strategy soon.

DB.jpg

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7 hours ago, Angela said:

As promised, here's one of the results I yielded after 4 days. Here's the spotlight of this strategy (see image). As you can see, the worst streak I got was 11 at 1.5x multiplier while my balance was just over 0.002 ETH. If you are using a regular Martingale strategy, on the 8th streak on that multiplier in my balance, you may have already busted, but through the method above I was able to withstand it.

PS: I will post the marathon of 50,000 rolls I did with this strategy soon.

DB.jpg

well, Had 200k start made  70k thats like 1.35x, so if you tried like 3 times that would be less than 50%  to bust, and 1 time isnt that hard,  would be cool if showed few more runs 

and well waiting for the script,  well long  running scripts are  very cool

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this is the past strategy that I have ever used. with a total balance of 0.00150000 btc, I bet on payout 2x. betting time and my dice roll stops every 1 hour 30 minutes. I do this because every time the nonce in the seed increases, the series of red line rolls will get longer ...
if at the beginning of the bet up to 1000 rolls, it can be said the longest amount of red varicose can reach 17 consecutive red lines ... and when nonce crosses the 1000 roll limit, then the number of consecutive red lines will also increase ... I have experienced betting on payout 2x finding red streak along the 21 red lines ... that's why it is necessary to reset the seed ... its function is to return the nonce calculation back to its position ...

but ... yeah ... I doubt some gamblers here, in primedice who are willing to bet with the strategy you mentioned above ... because I'm sure the majority of gamblers here expect instant wins in the shortest time possible ...

but I admit that the theory you mentioned above is true ... if anyone reads my post, please try if you don't believe in the above strategies ... below I will make a simple calculation to start this bet with 2x the profit of 2x your balance is only 1 hour 30 minutes ...

17 red = 1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 32 + 64 + 128 + 256 + 512 + 1024 + 2048 + 4096 + 8192 + 16,384 + 32,768 = 65,535 satoshi ... this is what you need for capital at the beginning of the bet. but, however, use more satoshi to avoid the worst possible 20 streaks of red streaks ... in my opinion it would be good if you use 150k satoshi for your bankroll, and see the results within 1 hour 30 minutes. learn from experience, within 1 hour 30 minutes, my balance which was originally only 150k sath will be 300k sath ...

good luck and good luck.. 🧖🧖🧖

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12 hours ago, Angela said:

As promised, here's one of the results I yielded after 4 days. Here's the spotlight of this strategy (see image). As you can see, the worst streak I got was 11 at 1.5x multiplier while my balance was just over 0.002 ETH. If you are using a regular Martingale strategy, on the 8th streak on that multiplier in my balance, you may have already busted, but through the method above I was able to withstand it.

PS: I will post the marathon of 50,000 rolls I did with this strategy soon.

DB.jpg

Thank you for posting this.  I will have to give it a shot and see how it works for me.

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