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mikec7845417

2x payout roll analysis

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Hi,

 

I am trying to make a martingale-based algorithm based on some analysis.

The idea is to find out when it is the best time to switch sides in the process.

 

I have setup a MySQL database which consists of following tables:

SEED used for generating rolls

10 rows (random server seed, same client seed)

 

ROLL generated rolls for each seed

1,000,000 rows for each seed (10,000,000 rows total)

0–999,999 nonce for each seed

 

STREAK low, high or house edge streaks

5,097,980 rows total

 

Low streak is count of consecutive rolls under 49.50.

Hi streak is count of consecutive rolls over 50.49.

House edge streak is count of consecutive rolls between 49.50 and 50.49 inclusive.

 

 

 

 

Low streak

Count

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

1,262,317

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

625,350

 

 

 

 

 

3

 

309,775

 

 

 

 

 

4

 

152,799

 

 

 

 

 

5

 

75,202

 

 

 

 

 

6

 

37,405

 

 

 

 

 

7

 

18,640

 

 

 

 

 

8

 

9,191

 

 

 

 

 

9

 

4,601

 

 

 

 

 

10

 

2,291

 

 

 

 

 

11

 

1,103

 

 

 

 

 

12

 

574

 

 

 

 

 

13

 

262

 

 

 

 

 

14

 

137

 

 

 

 

 

15

 

66

 

 

 

 

 

16

 

33

 

 

 

 

 

17

 

20

 

 

 

 

 

18

 

6

 

 

 

 

 

19

 

3

 

 

 

 

 

20

 

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

High streak

Count

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

1,262,280

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

624,478

 

 

 

 

 

3

 

309,217

 

 

 

 

 

4

 

153,266

 

 

 

 

 

5

 

76,041

 

 

 

 

 

6

 

37,367

 

 

 

 

 

7

 

18,567

 

 

 

 

 

8

 

9,318

 

 

 

 

 

9

 

4,608

 

 

 

 

 

10

 

2,264

 

 

 

 

 

11

 

1,116

 

 

 

 

 

12

 

557

 

 

 

 

 

13

 

295

 

 

 

 

 

14

 

145

 

 

 

 

 

15

 

65

 

 

 

 

 

16

 

37

 

 

 

 

 

17

 

12

 

 

 

 

 

18

 

4

 

 

 

 

 

19

 

6

 

 

 

 

 

20

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

House edge streak

 

Count

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

97,630

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

915

 

 

 

 

 

3

 

14

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Max high or low streak is 20.
  • Max losing streak when betting on one side is 20. There isn't any house edge roll after streak 20 is hit.

 

 

Any suggestions what to look for?

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  • Max high or low streak is 20.

  • Max losing streak when betting on one side is 20. There isn't any house edge roll after streak 20 is hit.

 

 

Any suggestions what to look for?

 

 

I wonder how the streak is effected if the win chance is at 50% (payout is 1.98x). Hi is >49.99, Lo is <50.00.

 

btw, its notable that the max streak is only 20 in your 10 million generated rolls . Plenty of users have seen > 20.

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  • Max high or low streak is 20.

  • Max losing streak when betting on one side is 20. There isn't any house edge roll after streak 20 is hit.

 

 

Any suggestions what to look for?

 

 

I wonder how the streak is effected if the win chance is at 50% (payout is 1.98x). Hi is >49.99, Lo is <50.00.

 

btw, its notable that the max streak is only 20 in your 10 million generated rolls . Plenty of users have seen > 20.

 

 

Yeah, that means it's 10,000,000:1 chance you get more than 20 streak. Very, very unlikely but still possible.

I ran payout 1.98x calculation of streaks for one seed only (1,000,000 rolls) and looks pretty much the same as 2x payout streaks.

 

You can see the results in attachments.

There is 19 max streak but note that for this seed there was 19 max streak on 2x payout too.

Screen_Shot_2017-03-16_at_16_01_21.png.14fb4da390c92cab5d8e1b0ec1b7bc57.png

Screen_Shot_2017-03-16_at_16_01_28.png.27d45669588a785a191d06417b18e96d.png

Screen_Shot_2017-03-16_at_16_01_21.png.14fb4da390c92cab5d8e1b0ec1b7bc57.png

Screen_Shot_2017-03-16_at_16_01_28.png.27d45669588a785a191d06417b18e96d.png

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that's interesting but I don't think we can get anything from it that would make us win more or lose less haha

 

 

Yeah, after a few hours of testing I found out that it's not possible to beat math. Win rate never exceeded 50% => house will ALWAYS win in long term.

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