How much bank you need to run the Martingale strategy

[leftler 1]

When doing the Martingale strategy you must have enough money in your bank account to survive a loosing streak of whatever level of risk you wish to do. Here are the numbers and some experimental data on how likely a loosing streak of a given length may be.

First, to survive a losing streak you must have at least the following amount of money in your wallet to cover the losses

Loss Streak Length	Bank Required	Odds of Happening
1	Base Bet x 1	50.5%
2	Base Bet x 3	25.5025%
3	Base Bet x 7	12.8787625%
4	Base Bet x 15	6.50377506%
5	Base Bet x 31	3.28440641%
6	Base Bet x 63	1.65862524%
7	Base Bet x 127	0.83760574%
8	Base Bet x 255	0.4229909%
9	Base Bet x 511	0.2136104%
10	Base Bet x 1,023	0.10787325%
11	Base Bet x 2,047	0.05447599%
12	Base Bet x 4,095	0.02751038%
13	Base Bet x 8,191	0.01389274%
14	Base Bet x 16,383	0.00701583%
15	Base Bet x 32,767	0.003543%
16	Base Bet x 65,535	0.00178921%
17	Base Bet x 131,071	0.00090355%
18	Base Bet x 262,143	0.00045629%
19	Base Bet x 524,287	0.00023043%
20	Base Bet x 1,048,575	0.00011637%
21	Base Bet x 2,097,151	0.00005877%
22	Base Bet x 4,194,303	0.00002968%
23	Base Bet x 8,388,607	0.00001499%
24	Base Bet x 16,777,215	0.00000757%
25	Base Bet x 33,554,431	0.00000382%
26	Base Bet x 67,108,863	0.00000193%
27	Base Bet x 134,217,727	0.00000097%

The Odds listed above are the mathematical odds of it happening. To test these odds out I ran 200 runs on a modified Prime Dice verifier until each run found a streak of 27 losses in a row.

Streak Length	Average	Min	Max
1	1.02±0.10	1	8
2	5.36 ± 0.36	1	28
3	12.93 ± 0.77	2	57
4	30.80 ± 2.32	3	301
5	62.92 ± 4.61	4	382
6	119.99 ± 8.21	5	706
7	252.88 ± 17.83	6	1,308
8	471.01 ± 30.35	10	2,090
9	908.00 ± 69.22	11	6,178
10	1,877.09 ± 136.23	19	12,321
11	3,760.79 ± 276.60	42	27,327
12	7,235.21 ± 526.77	43	35,539
13	12,371.51 ± 934.76	57	62,705
14	29,307.62 ± 2,079.97	108	155,778
15	58,775.51 ± 4,276.75	214	336,000
16	107,962.59 ± 8,036.78	441	563,502
17	209,525.75 ± 17,089.38	442	1,533,139
18	455,825.71 ± 35,813.54	443	3,777,632
19	988,306.72 ± 73,346.75	1,919	5,240,642
20	1,962,387.62 ± 136,973.35	1,920	14,846,466
21	3,373,874.74 ± 226,913.69	1,921	21,527,142
22	7,326,895.10 ± 549,094.92	1,922	36,569,568
23	15,624,930.95 ± 1,146,750.88	1,923	85,330,781
24	28,888,728.10 ± 1,998,890.07	1,924	162,085,084
25	53,235,302.43 ± 3,342,893.99	51,329	253,504,742
26	98,633,583.62 ± 6,931,557.82	365,214	607,095,862
27	196,832,371.27 ± 13,557,490.12	501,956	875,872,209

What the columns mean:

• "Average" - The average number of rolls plus or minus the standard deviation of the mean before you reach the end of that streak
• "Min" - The minimum number of rolls over the 200 trials it took to find that streak.
• "Max" - The maximum number of rolls over the 200 trials it took to find that streak.

The raw data with all of the server and client seeds can be found in the attached file.

results.json

Edited July 8, 2017 by leftler

[Nataly 39]

How much minimum ammout we need to have on balance? And if it is permit to play on strategy?

Edited July 15, 2017 by Nataly
mistake

[vinka1976 50]

you could lose all anyway with or without those charts..... its just luck

[Serlite 577]

On 2017-07-15 at 06:33, Nataly said:

How much minimum ammout we need to have on balance? And if it is permit to play on strategy?

Infinite, honestly - if you play long enough, eventually you'll hit a lengthy enough red streak to burn your entire balance.

Just use only what you can afford to lose, and try to keep the base bet is significantly smaller than your available balance (maybe 1 / 2^15 to 1 / 2^20 of your balance), or you'll crash rather quickly.

[Nataly 39]

10 hours ago, Serlite said:

Infinite, honestly - if you play long enough, eventually you'll hit a lengthy enough red streak to burn your entire balance.

Just use only what you can afford to lose, and try to keep the base bet is significantly smaller than your available balance (maybe 1 / 2^15 to 1 / 2^20 of your balance), or you'll crash rather quickly.

Oh, thank you so so much for your advice. I am new in this game, but I really like it. But I loose every time (((

[ullikah 33]

 

On 16.7.2017 at 21:21, Serlite said:

Infinite, honestly - if you play long enough, eventually you'll hit a lengthy enough red streak to burn your entire balance.

Just use only what you can afford to lose, and try to keep the base bet is significantly smaller than your available balance (maybe 1 / 2^15 to 1 / 2^20 of your balance), or you'll crash rather quickly.

Well than, according to this statement your advice would be? ... Not to play? That's no fun...
I think its quite possibleto actually make profit eventually if you keep your playtime short... like 10 to 15 minutes and then take a break , change strategy, artificially hunt for red streaks with minimum bets without raise on loss and then come back to your real game...

[timdp 0]

to be honest you actually do need Infinite bank to know for a fact that you are going to "win" because no matter how small your losing chance is... it will happen. but the good news is it might happen a long way down the run and you may be smart enough to leave when you are ahead. my experience personally is that you will get greedy and lose it all

[0927 0]

Thanks a lot for this... very usefull info 

[Nataly 39]

I had bank 0.03 and busted, I was afraid to double, whet base bet was already 512k

[cryptos_fr 27]

already had a  28 red  strike... its hurts lol. so no more  Martinfail for me ^^ 

[Kristoffff 235]

the bigger your bank balance the better usually. But is it really worth your time starting at 1 sat? I mean itll take ages before u get a decent amount of money. Your electric bill will be more ?

 

[rack001 44]

Martingale is the worst strategy out there , it can be good sometimes and give huge profits but most of the times it will destroy your bank roll ! If you really wanna do martingale choose your base bet according to your bankroll ! Always keeps in mind that always commit to the stratergy and dont give up in between !

[Faris 307]

Fuck martingale i loss 2 years ago 10 btc

[keian 27]

i dont believe in any strat,.its just pure luck

[Bes19 203]

I don't recommend to use this strategy. It can easily bust all of your balance. If you get atleast 20 reds then it will be hard for you to recover your losses. I lose a lot on this strategy.

[Carollzinha 557]

7 hours ago, Kristoffff said:

the bigger your bank balance the better usually. But is it really worth your time starting at 1 sat? I mean itll take ages before u get a decent amount of money. Your electric bill will be more ?

 

And even with 1 satoshi base bet you can get rekt (happened to me like 3 years ago) 

[makikwarta 8]

Martingale is very effective  when you have large amount of btc, atleast you can survive up to 50 red rolls, the best way is to start basebet low so you will have more chances when red waves arrive.. dont forget not to stay betting martingale for long time because eventually you will lose

[Kurian 188]

be lucky thats the minimum balance you need to win.

[Nataly 39]

Just now, Kurian said:

be lucky thats the minimum balance you need to win.

My brother made 0.037 from 10k for few hours. That was just luck. And it was only 1 time. He never hited again so big balance. Everytime he hope that will repeat this and bust all the time

[Kurian 188]

Just now, Nataly said:

My brother made 0.037 from 10k for few hours. That was just luck. And it was only 1 time. He never hited again so big balance. Everytime he hope that will repeat this and bust all the time

with big balance you should be very careful. we often bet high with big balances and end up busting.. always stick with small bet and high payout.

[Nataly 39]

Just now, Kurian said:

with big balance you should be very careful. we often bet high with big balances and end up busting.. always stick with small bet and high payout.

He started all the time after green from 1 satoshi, hited 0.037, then busted to 0.015. he played 6.6x payout

[Kurian 188]

Just now, Nataly said:

He started all the time after green from 1 satoshi, hited 0.037, then busted to 0.015. he played 6.6x payout

i think he must run that strategy for long time.. for 0.03 on 6.6x with basebet 1 sat and increase on loss 32% is somewhat safe.. long time run is not good for any strategy.

[DreamStage 144]

dicesites.com/tools is easiest to know

Edited August 31, 2017 by DreamStage

[Nataly 39]

11 hours ago, Kurian said:

i think he must run that strategy for long time.. for 0.03 on 6.6x with basebet 1 sat and increase on loss 32% is somewhat safe.. long time run is not good for any strategy.

yes, at the end he busted half of balance, because got too long red streak

[btcAlice 4]

Good job, leftler! 

I've heard that one can hit over 20 losing streak playing 50% win chance, but I've never seen more than 16 reds playing with that chance. But you tested it and showed that even a streak of 27 is possible. Wow, I'll be playing more careful from now on. 

I lost 560k sats a week ago btw. First went to 700k+ from that amount and then lost it all.