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How much bank you need to run the Martingale strategy

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When doing the Martingale strategy you must have enough money in your bank account to survive a loosing streak of whatever level of risk you wish to do. Here are the numbers and some experimental data on how likely a loosing streak of a given length may be.

First, to survive a losing streak you must have at least the following amount of money in your wallet to cover the losses

Loss Streak Length Bank Required Odds of Happening
1 Base Bet x 1 50.5%
2 Base Bet x 3 25.5025%
3 Base Bet x 7 12.8787625%
4 Base Bet x 15 6.50377506%
5 Base Bet x 31 3.28440641%
6 Base Bet x 63 1.65862524%
7 Base Bet x 127 0.83760574%
8 Base Bet x 255 0.4229909%
9 Base Bet x 511 0.2136104%
10 Base Bet x 1,023 0.10787325%
11 Base Bet x 2,047 0.05447599%
12 Base Bet x 4,095 0.02751038%
13 Base Bet x 8,191 0.01389274%
14 Base Bet x 16,383 0.00701583%
15 Base Bet x 32,767 0.003543%
16 Base Bet x 65,535 0.00178921%
17 Base Bet x 131,071 0.00090355%
18 Base Bet x 262,143 0.00045629%
19 Base Bet x 524,287 0.00023043%
20 Base Bet x 1,048,575 0.00011637%
21 Base Bet x 2,097,151 0.00005877%
22 Base Bet x 4,194,303 0.00002968%
23 Base Bet x 8,388,607 0.00001499%
24 Base Bet x 16,777,215 0.00000757%
25 Base Bet x 33,554,431 0.00000382%
26 Base Bet x 67,108,863 0.00000193%
27 Base Bet x 134,217,727 0.00000097%

The Odds listed above are the mathematical odds of it happening. To test these odds out I ran 200 runs on a modified Prime Dice verifier until each run found a streak of 27 losses in a row.

Streak Length Average Min Max
1 1.02±0.10 1 8
2 5.36 ± 0.36 1 28
3 12.93 ± 0.77 2 57
4 30.80 ± 2.32 3 301
5 62.92 ± 4.61 4 382
6 119.99 ± 8.21 5 706
7 252.88 ± 17.83 6 1,308
8 471.01 ± 30.35 10 2,090
9 908.00 ± 69.22 11 6,178
10 1,877.09 ± 136.23 19 12,321
11 3,760.79 ± 276.60 42 27,327
12 7,235.21 ± 526.77 43 35,539
13 12,371.51 ± 934.76 57 62,705
14 29,307.62 ± 2,079.97 108 155,778
15 58,775.51 ± 4,276.75 214 336,000
16 107,962.59 ± 8,036.78 441 563,502
17 209,525.75 ± 17,089.38 442 1,533,139
18 455,825.71 ± 35,813.54 443 3,777,632
19 988,306.72 ± 73,346.75 1,919 5,240,642
20 1,962,387.62 ± 136,973.35 1,920 14,846,466
21 3,373,874.74 ± 226,913.69 1,921 21,527,142
22 7,326,895.10 ± 549,094.92 1,922 36,569,568
23 15,624,930.95 ± 1,146,750.88 1,923 85,330,781
24 28,888,728.10 ± 1,998,890.07 1,924 162,085,084
25 53,235,302.43 ± 3,342,893.99 51,329 253,504,742
26 98,633,583.62 ± 6,931,557.82 365,214 607,095,862
27 196,832,371.27 ± 13,557,490.12 501,956 875,872,209

What the columns mean:

  • "Average" - The average number of rolls plus or minus the standard deviation of the mean before you reach the end of that streak
  • "Min" - The minimum number of rolls over the 200 trials it took to find that streak.
  • "Max" - The maximum number of rolls over the 200 trials it took to find that streak.

The raw data with all of the server and client seeds can be found in the attached file.

results.json

Edited by leftler

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On 2017-07-15 at 06:33, Nataly said:

How much minimum ammout we need to have on balance? And if it is permit to play on strategy?

Infinite, honestly - if you play long enough, eventually you'll hit a lengthy enough red streak to burn your entire balance.

Just use only what you can afford to lose, and try to keep the base bet is significantly smaller than your available balance (maybe 1 / 2^15 to 1 / 2^20 of your balance), or you'll crash rather quickly.

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10 hours ago, Serlite said:

Infinite, honestly - if you play long enough, eventually you'll hit a lengthy enough red streak to burn your entire balance.

Just use only what you can afford to lose, and try to keep the base bet is significantly smaller than your available balance (maybe 1 / 2^15 to 1 / 2^20 of your balance), or you'll crash rather quickly.

Oh, thank you so so much for your advice. I am new in this game, but I really like it. But I loose every time (((

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On 16.7.2017 at 21:21, Serlite said:

Infinite, honestly - if you play long enough, eventually you'll hit a lengthy enough red streak to burn your entire balance.

Just use only what you can afford to lose, and try to keep the base bet is significantly smaller than your available balance (maybe 1 / 2^15 to 1 / 2^20 of your balance), or you'll crash rather quickly.

Well than, according to this statement your advice would be? ... Not to play? That's no fun...
I think its quite possibleto actually make profit eventually if you keep your playtime short... like 10 to 15 minutes and then take a break , change strategy, artificially hunt for red streaks with minimum bets without raise on loss and then come back to your real game...

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to be honest you actually do need Infinite bank to know for a fact that you are going to "win" because no matter how small your losing chance is... it will happen. but the good news is it might happen a long way down the run and you may be smart enough to leave when you are ahead. my experience personally is that you will get greedy and lose it all

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Martingale is the worst strategy out there , it can be good sometimes and give huge profits but most of the times it will destroy your bank roll ! If you really wanna do martingale choose your base bet according to your bankroll ! Always keeps in mind that always commit to the stratergy and dont give up in between !

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I don't recommend to use this strategy. It can easily bust all of your balance. If you get atleast 20 reds then it will be hard for you to recover your losses. I lose a lot on this strategy.

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7 hours ago, Kristoffff said:

the bigger your bank balance the better usually. But is it really worth your time starting at 1 sat? I mean itll take ages before u get a decent amount of money. Your electric bill will be more ?

 

And even with 1 satoshi base bet you can get rekt (happened to me like 3 years ago) xD

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Martingale is very effective  when you have large amount of btc, atleast you can survive up to 50 red rolls, the best way is to start basebet low so you will have more chances when red waves arrive.. dont forget not to stay betting martingale for long time because eventually you will lose

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Just now, Kurian said:

be lucky thats the minimum balance you need to win.

My brother made 0.037 from 10k for few hours. That was just luck. And it was only 1 time. He never hited again so big balance. Everytime he hope that will repeat this and bust all the time

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Just now, Nataly said:

My brother made 0.037 from 10k for few hours. That was just luck. And it was only 1 time. He never hited again so big balance. Everytime he hope that will repeat this and bust all the time

with big balance you should be very careful. we often bet high with big balances and end up busting.. always stick with small bet and high payout.

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Just now, Kurian said:

with big balance you should be very careful. we often bet high with big balances and end up busting.. always stick with small bet and high payout.

He started all the time after green from 1 satoshi, hited 0.037, then busted to 0.015. he played 6.6x payout

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Just now, Nataly said:

He started all the time after green from 1 satoshi, hited 0.037, then busted to 0.015. he played 6.6x payout

i think he must run that strategy for long time.. for 0.03 on 6.6x with basebet 1 sat and increase on loss 32% is somewhat safe.. long time run is not good for any strategy.

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11 hours ago, Kurian said:

i think he must run that strategy for long time.. for 0.03 on 6.6x with basebet 1 sat and increase on loss 32% is somewhat safe.. long time run is not good for any strategy.

yes, at the end he busted half of balance, because got too long red streak

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Good job, leftler! 

I've heard that one can hit over 20 losing streak playing 50% win chance, but I've never seen more than 16 reds playing with that chance. But you tested it and showed that even a streak of 27 is possible. Wow, I'll be playing more careful from now on. 

I lost 560k sats a week ago btw. First went to 700k+ from that amount and then lost it all. 

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