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Serlite

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Serlite last won the day on February 14

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About Serlite

  • Rank
    Master

Player Details

  • Username
    Serlite
  • Wagered (BTC)
    10.58449703
  • Wagered (ETH)
    29.39557660
  • Wagered (LTC)
    28.23748649
  • Wagered (DOGE)
    574,594.10120

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  1. Hmm...I checked my dicebot logs, and it looked like in this case, I was very lucky in terms of the number of rolls I made. Part 1: 2538 Part 2: 3023 Together, that was only 5561 rolls...but even though I came out ahead in terms of roll count, I still suffered badly in terms of my losses. The expected losses from house edge were 16.2k sats. But my losses for this challenge were: Part 1: 779 DOGE = 23.4k sats Part 2: 0.671 XRP = 2.2k sats Converted and added, that makes a total loss of approximately 25.6k...which is obviously a lot bigger than 16.2k! The massive losses came primarily from Part 1, where such high multipliers carried with them much higher variance, and led to a greater deviation from the expected value. If the challenge took millions of rolls instead of thousands, I'd probably get much closer to the expected value - but of course, a challenge like that wouldn't really be reasonable for anyone to attempt! So there's the catch - the expected value alone can't tell the whole story, and shouldn't be relied upon unless you're hunting at the lowest possible multiplier (where variance is much lower). I still attempted it since I expect the prize share will be at least 50k, and 50k - 16.2k = 33.8k, which is a lot of leeway to still earn a profit...but if it was much tighter, I don't think I would have tried it at all.
  2. That's a good question! There's some pretty easy math involved that you can try yourself. Let's use this week's challenge as an example! Win 77.9528x, twice in a row Hit 20.16 as a roll number What are the basic probabilities for these? Well, 77.9528x has a 1.27% (0.0127 probability) win chance, and rolling any given number is 1/10000. So we get: (0.0127)^2 = 0.00016129, so inverting it (1/0.00016129), we get 6200 rolls (1/10000) = 0.0001, so inverting it (1/0.0001) we get 10000 rolls So the expected roll count is 6200 + 10000 = 16200 rolls. That gives you an estimate of the average number of rolls people will take to complete the challenge...but the cost can become unpredictable when higher multipliers come into play. In those cases, variance can incur a much greater cost on you than the house edge - so be careful with which challenges you try! I generally stick to challenges that leave a significant profit margin between the cost and the expected prize. It really does pay to do the math in advance; last week's challenge had an expected cost of about 40k and carried high risk of variance, making it so difficult that only 29 players finished it. That means they split the base prize of 0.01 - that's only 34k a person, which means on average, they actually lost money. And that's not even counting the people that failed to complete the challenge after sinking a lot of money into it!
  3. Hooray, this one was more doable than last week's...but still really quite costly for me. Lost all my Doge hunting this! Would probably not recommend if you don't want to risk/waste a lot of balance...I probably wouldn't do it again, given the choice. Bet: 49,843,722,112 placed by Serlite on 12/02/2020 Wagered 0.03600000 Multiplier 77.95x Profit 2.77029900 Bet: 49,843,722,894 placed by Serlite on 12/02/2020 Wagered 0.03600000 Multiplier 77.95x Profit 2.77029900 20.16 Bet: 49,846,367,522 placed by Serlite on 12/02/2020 Wagered 0.03600000 Multiplier 1.01x Profit 0.00036720 As for the script, it's in two parts. As usual, paste the script into the Code tab of dicebot, and update currency/amount as needed. Part 1: chance = 1.27 nextbet = 0.036 bethigh = true currency = "Xrp" function dobet() if win then print(lastBet.Id) end if currentstreak >= 2 then ching() stop() end end Part 2: chance = 98 nextbet = 0.036 bethigh = false currency = "Xrp" function dobet() if lastBet.Roll == 20.16 then print(lastBet.Id) ching() stop() end end
  4. I always try to do the math beforehand to decide whether to try out a challenge. For a rough idea of how much a given challenge will cost people on average, just calculate: [Expected Roll Count] x [Bet Amount] x 0.01 This gives you the average losses due to the house edge. Then, subtract that from the approximate prize share people will get, and it gives you an idea of how profitable a challenge will be under optimal theoretical conditions. Of course, variance throws a wrench into this and adds more risk to the whole affair - so I tend to avoid challenges that focus on relatively high multipliers/rare events. Like this week's challenge...
  5. This one was pretty fun to hunt! Lots of combinations of these digits to go for: 10.32 Bet: 48,255,588,547 placed by Serlite on 27/01/2020 Wagered 0.03800000 Multiplier 1.01x Profit 0.00038760 32.10 Bet: 48,255,815,461 placed by Serlite on 27/01/2020 Wagered 0.03800000 Multiplier 1.01x Profit 0.00038760 12.30 Bet: 48,256,302,156 placed by Serlite on 27/01/2020 Wagered 0.03800000 Multiplier 1.01x Profit 0.00038760 10.23 Bet: 48,256,521,707 placed by Serlite on 27/01/2020 Wagered 0.03800000 Multiplier 1.01x Profit 0.00038760 23.10 Bet: 48,256,782,354 placed by Serlite on 27/01/2020 Wagered 0.03800000 Multiplier 1.01x Profit 0.00038760 As for the script, it reuses some different components from my old scripts, so nothing new. Remember to keep track of which ones you hit - don't count duplicates that you get! As usual, paste it into the Code tab of dicebot in Programmer mode, change the currency/multiplier/amount, and go for it: chance=98 nextbet=0.03800000 bethigh=false currency="Xrp" local digitsToHunt = {0, 1, 2, 3} function dobet() -- break down roll number into comparable components local digit4 = round((lastBet.Roll * 100) % 10) local digit3 = round(((lastBet.Roll * 100) % 100 - digit4) / 10) local digit2 = round(((lastBet.Roll * 100) % 1000 - digit3 * 10 - digit4) / 100) local digit1 = round(((lastBet.Roll * 100) - digit2 * 100 - digit3 * 10 - digit4) / 1000) if win and isValidPattern(digit1, digit2, digit3, digit4) then print(tostring(lastBet.Roll)) print(tostring(lastBet.Id)) ching() stop() end end function round(x) return math.floor(x + 0.5) end function isValidPattern(digit1, digit2, digit3, digit4) local digitSet = {digit1, digit2, digit3, digit4} for key, digit in pairs(digitsToHunt) do if not containedInSet(digit, digitSet) then return false end end return true end function containedInSet(x, set) for key, value in pairs(set) do if x == value then return true end end return false end
  6. I'm...not actually doing this week's challenge! Because I've got that aversion to high multipliers...but hey, here's a script in case you do want to hunt it. As usual, paste it into the code part of dicebot and change the currency/amount as needed. As you hit numbers, remember to update the pattern. Good luck! chance = 1 nextbet = 0.00015000 bethigh = true currency = "Ltc" local pattern = "99.X1" function dobet() -- break down roll number into comparable components local digit4 = round((lastBet.Roll * 100) % 10) local digit3 = round(((lastBet.Roll * 100) % 100 - digit4) / 10) local digit2 = round(((lastBet.Roll * 100) % 1000 - digit3 * 10 - digit4) / 100) local digit1 = round(((lastBet.Roll * 100) - digit2 * 100 - digit3 * 10 - digit4) / 1000) if isValidPattern(digit1, digit2, digit3, digit4) then print(tostring(lastBet.Roll)) print(tostring(lastBet.Id)) ching() stop() end end function round(x) return math.floor(x + 0.5) end function isValidPattern(digit1, digit2, digit3, digit4) local ref1 = string.sub(pattern, 1, 1) local ref2 = string.sub(pattern, 2, 2) local ref3 = string.sub(pattern, 4, 4) local ref4 = string.sub(pattern, 5, 5) if (ref1 == tostring(digit1) or ref1 == "X") and (ref2 == tostring(digit2) or ref2 == "X") and (ref3 == tostring(digit3) or ref3 == "X") and (ref4 == tostring(digit4) or ref4 == "X") then return true end return false end
  7. Oooh boy...trying this challenge almost turned out to be a big mistake for me. Hitting those roll numbers, that's easy. But hunting high multipliers? The variance is...frightening. Probably won't be trying more challenges that are just high-multiplier hunts. But good luck to anyone who still will! 20.14 Bet: 47,170,713,873 placed by Serlite on 13/01/2020 Wagered 0.03700000 Multiplier 3.00x Profit 0.07400000 20.17 Bet: 47,170,978,275 placed by Serlite on 13/01/2020 Wagered 0.03700000 Multiplier 3.00x Profit 0.07400000 20.00 Bet: 47,171,032,532 placed by Serlite on 13/01/2020 Wagered 0.03700000 Multiplier 3.00x Profit 0.07400000 99.60 Bet: 47,171,280,964 placed by Serlite on 13/01/2020 Wagered 0.03700000 Multiplier 137.50x Profit 5.05050000 0.36 Bet: 47,171,363,817 placed by Serlite on 13/01/2020 Wagered 0.03700000 Multiplier 247.50x Profit 9.12050000 As for the script...well, there's only really a need for a script on the first part - the last two are just roll-til-you-win sort of things! chance = 33 nextbet = 0.037 bethigh = false currency = "Xrp" numbersToHunt = {20.00, 20.03, 20.06, 20.09, 20.11, 20.13, 20.14, 20.16, 20.17} function dobet() if containedInSet(lastBet.Roll, numbersToHunt) then print(lastBet.Roll) print(lastBet.Id) ching() stop() end end function containedInSet(x, set) for key, value in pairs(set) do if x == value then return true end end return false end
  8. Well, this is a bit more of an interesting rollhunt! 80.00 Bet: 46,619,506,773 placed by Serlite on 06/01/2020 Wagered 3.50000000 Multiplier 1.01x Profit 0.03570000 88.00 Bet: 46,620,111,791 placed by Serlite on 06/01/2020 Wagered 3.50000000 Multiplier 1.01x Profit 0.03570000 80.80 Bet: 46,623,766,919 placed by Serlite on 06/01/2020 Wagered 0.03200000 Multiplier 1.01x Profit 0.00032640 88.88 Bet: 46,626,679,279 placed by Serlite on 07/01/2020 Wagered 0.03200000 Multiplier 1.01x Profit 0.00032640 08.08 Bet: 46,626,829,710 placed by Serlite on 07/01/2020 Wagered 0.03200000 Multiplier 1.01x Profit 0.00032640 As for the script, it's just a mishmash of some earlier ones I wrote. Change the multiplier/currency/amount as needed. Good luck! chance=98 nextbet=3.5 bethigh=false currency = "Doge" numbersToHunt = {00.08, 00.80, 08.00, 08.08, 08.80, 80.00, 80.08, 80.80, 88.00, 88.88} function dobet() local betIdString = tostring(lastBet.Id) if containedInSet(lastBet.Roll, numbersToHunt) and string.find(betIdString, "6") and string.find(betIdString, "9") then print(lastBet.Roll) print(lastBet.Id) ching() stop() end end function round(x) return math.floor(x + 0.5) end function containedInSet(x, set) for key, value in pairs(set) do if x == value then return true end end return false end
  9. Aaah...these challenges always get me worried about an escalating competition that leaves nobody a winner, haha. I'm stopping really early, so I'll probably just split the lowest pooled prize. Bet: 46,034,448,380 placed by Serlite on 31/12/2019 Wagered 0.04000000 Multiplier 5.00x Profit 0.16000000 Bet: 46,034,449,258 placed by Serlite on 31/12/2019 Wagered 0.04000000 Multiplier 5.00x Profit 0.16000000 Bet: 46,034,450,094 placed by Serlite on 31/12/2019 Wagered 0.04000000 Multiplier 5.00x Profit 0.16000000 Bet: 46,034,450,899 placed by Serlite on 31/12/2019 Wagered 0.04000000 Multiplier 5.00x Profit 0.16000000 Bet: 46,034,451,765 placed by Serlite on 31/12/2019 Wagered 0.04000000 Multiplier 5.00x Profit 0.16000000 As for the script...I've used it before, and it just makes it easier to know what your best streak is - but it won't stop for you, so you need to stop it once you've reached your goal! As usual, change the currency/bet amount as needed. Good luck! But be smart about this, since you can lose a lot of balance on hunts like these. chance = 19.8000 nextbet = 0.038 bethigh = true currency = "Xrp" local bestStreak = 0 local streakNumbers = {} function dobet() if win then table.insert(streakNumbers, lastBet.Id) if bestStreak < currentstreak then ching() print("New best streak: "..tostring(currentstreak)) printSet(streakNumbers) bestStreak = currentstreak end else streakNumbers = {} end end function printSet(set) local printedString = "" for key, value in pairs(set) do printedString = printedString..tostring(value).." " end print(printedString) end
  10. Oh darn, I must be more tired than I thought! Fixed the script and updated my post. Thanks for the heads-up!
  11. Here we go, simple enough and not thaaaaat expensive... 8.91 Bet: 45,851,456,580 placed by Serlite on 29/12/2019 Wagered 0.03800000 Multiplier 9.00x Profit 0.30400000 5.9 Bet: 45,851,457,431 placed by Serlite on 29/12/2019 Wagered 0.03800000 Multiplier 9.00x Profit 0.30400000 And now for the script - as usual, change the currency and amounts as needed. Good luck! chance = 11 nextbet = 0.038 bethigh = false currency = "Xrp" local lastBetID = nil local lastBetNumber = nil function dobet() if win and containsDigitInDecimal(lastBet.Roll, 9) then if lastBetID == nil then lastBetID = lastBet.Id lastBetNumber = lastBet.Roll print(lastBet.ID) print(lastBet.Roll) else ching() print(lastBetID) print(lastBetNumber) print(lastBet.ID) print(lastBet.Roll) stop() end else resetHunt() end end function resetHunt() lastBetID = nil lastBetNumber = nil end function round(x) return math.floor(x + 0.5) end function containsDigitInDecimal(rollNumber, checkDigit) local digits = {} local digit4 = round((rollNumber * 100) % 10) local digit3 = round(((rollNumber * 100) % 100 - digit4) / 10) local digit2 = round(((rollNumber * 100) % 1000 - digit3 * 10 - digit4) / 100) local digit1 = round(((rollNumber * 100) - digit2 * 100 - digit3 * 10 - digit4) / 1000) if digit3 == checkDigit or digit4 == checkDigit then return true end return false end
  12. Yaaay, another easy one! Just a straightforward rollhunt this time... 90.09 Bet: 44,952,392,159 placed by Serlite on 16/12/2019 Wagered 3.40000000 Multiplier 1.01x Profit 0.03468000 20.02 Bet: 44,957,527,514 placed by Serlite on 16/12/2019 Wagered 3.40000000 Multiplier 1.01x Profit 0.03468000 70.77 Bet: 44,958,520,583 placed by Serlite on 16/12/2019 Wagered 3.40000000 Multiplier 1.01x Profit 0.03468000 20.22 Bet: 44,963,118,018 placed by Serlite on 17/12/2019 Wagered 3.40000000 Multiplier 1.01x Profit 0.03468000 As for the script, well - it's the same old rollhunt script: chance = 98 nextbet = 3.4 bethigh = true currency = "Doge" numbersToHunt = {20.02, 20.22, 50.05, 50.55, 70.07, 70.77, 90.09, 90.99} function dobet() if containedInSet(lastBet.Roll, numbersToHunt) then print(lastBet.Roll) print(lastBet.Id) ching() stop() end end function containedInSet(x, set) for key, value in pairs(set) do if x == value then return true end end return false end
  13. Hooray, a much easier challenge! This one's simple enough to script, too. 99.99 Bet: 44,293,003,983 placed by Serlite on 09/12/2019 Wagered 0.03200000 Multiplier 10.00x Profit 0.28800000 95.59 Bet: 44,294,320,054 placed by Serlite on 09/12/2019 Wagered 0.03200000 Multiplier 10.00x Profit 0.28800000 94.49 Bet: 44,299,203,030 placed by Serlite on 09/12/2019 Wagered 0.03200000 Multiplier 10.00x Profit 0.28800000 97.79 Bet: 44,302,382,308 placed by Serlite on 09/12/2019 Wagered 0.03200000 Multiplier 10.00x Profit 0.28800000 93.39 Bet: 44,303,775,870 placed by Serlite on 09/12/2019 Wagered 0.03200000 Multiplier 10.00x Profit 0.28800000 As for the script, is a simplified version of one I wrote before! Pretty straightforward - just update the currency/bet amount as usual, and paste into the Code section of dicebot: chance = 9.9 --sets your chance for placing a bet nextbet = 0.032 --sets your first bet. bethigh = true --bet high when true, bet low when false currency = "Xrp" function dobet() -- break down roll number into comparable components local digit4 = round((lastBet.Roll * 100) % 10) local digit3 = round(((lastBet.Roll * 100) % 100 - digit4) / 10) local digit2 = round(((lastBet.Roll * 100) % 1000 - digit3 * 10 - digit4) / 100) local digit1 = round(((lastBet.Roll * 100) - digit2 * 100 - digit3 * 10 - digit4) / 1000) print(tostring(digit1)..tostring(digit2).."."..tostring(digit3)..tostring(digit4)) if win and isValidPattern(digit1, digit2, digit3, digit4) then print(lastBet.Id) ching() stop() end end function round(x) return math.floor(x + 0.5) end function isValidPattern(digit1, digit2, digit3, digit4) local inputNumbers = {digit1, digit2, digit3, digit4} if digit1 == digit4 and digit2 == digit3 then return true end return false end
  14. Ah...sorry, I didn't try this challenge so I didn't write a script for it. This one's a bit tough with or without a script, so on a personal basis I probably wouldn't recommend trying it anyway, haha.
  15. Bleh! That took an unpleasantly long time...spent almost 60k just hunting for this. High variance challenges continue to be unpleasant... 19.43 Bet: 42,426,345,440 placed by Serlite on 18/11/2019 Wagered 0.00015000 Multiplier 5.00x Profit 0.00060000 19.76 Bet: 42,445,887,289 placed by Serlite on 19/11/2019 Wagered 0.00015000 Multiplier 5.00x Profit 0.00060000 As for the script, well...it's just a basic rollhunt, but might as well! chance = 19.8 nextbet = 0.00015 bethigh = false currency = "Ltc" numbersToHunt = {19.43, 19.76} function dobet() if containedInSet(lastBet.Roll, numbersToHunt) then print(lastBet.Roll) print(lastBet.Id) ching() stop() end end function containedInSet(x, set) for key, value in pairs(set) do if x == value then return true end end return false end
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